Summer synopsis: Ottawa Senators

There was a lot of excitement in Ottawa last fall when the Senators took to the ice to open the 2022-23 season. Outside of the Calgary Flames, general manager Pierre Dorion and the Senators were widely regarded as the winner of the offseason. But, winners of the offseason don’t always win in season, and much like the Flames, the Senators struggled to put it together on the ice. The team took a while to find their game and when they finally did form a cohesive unit, they found themselves well outside of the playoff picture. They did climb back into the thick of things that last few months of the season, but for the most part it was a lost season in a long line of lost seasons. But it was not without its positives. Many individual Senators players took big steps. Tim Stützle took monumental steps to establishing himself as a bonafide superstar, Jake Sanderson showed he was worthy of the hype, Brady Tkachuk continued to put up good offensive numbers and matured on and off the ice. The only thing missing was a playoff spot, and the Senators looked poised to chase one down this season.

Draft

4-108: D Hoyt Stanley, Victoria Grizzlies (BCHL)
5-140: D Matthew Andonovski, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
7-204: F Owen Beckner, Salmon Arm Silverbacks (BCHL)
7-207: G Vladimir Nikitin, Barys Nur-Sultan (KAZ)
7-215: G Nicholas Vantassell, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL)

The Senators clearly saw a need to build up the backend as they drafted two defensemen and two goalies in the 2023 NHL entry draft. They also seemed to want to add size as both goaltenders stand over 6’4” while both the defensemen they drafted are over 6’2”. The Senators have typically struggled in the net and have never had much stability outside of Craig Anderson’s run. Drafting in the later rounds may not prove fruitful, but with the unpredictability of the goaltending position, it’s worth a chance.

The Senators didn’t have any picks in the first three rounds of this year’s draft after trading them away in various moves the past year or so, but with the pipeline of prospects they already have, they likely aren’t too concerned.

Trade Acquisitions

F – Dominik Kubalik (from Detroit)
D – Donovan Sebrango (from Detroit)

Kubalik and Sebrango both come over from the Red Wings in the Alex DeBrincat trade this summer and figure to be part of the Senators' future.

Sebrango was born in Ottawa and is unlikely to make much of an impact with the big club anytime soon. He hasn’t shown much at the AHL level and spent a considerable amount of time in the ECHL last season. He is just 21 years old so it wouldn’t be fair to write him off just yet given that he’s only three years removed from being drafted in the third round.

Kubalik on the other hand will likely get a look on the Senators second line which could be great news for the 28-year-old. Kubalik is just three years removed from potting 30 goals as a rookie and had a decent year last year with 20 goals and 25 assists in 81 games. He is probably going to see a reduction in the quality of power play time he is used to but will likely have the opportunity to play with better players 5 on 5. Kubalik won’t match DeBrincat’s offensive numbers, but he should put up good numbers at a fraction of the cost. The Senators didn’t do great in the Debrincat trade, especially considering what they had to give up acquiring the player. Despite that, Kubalik should fit into the Senators middle six and provide some good depth offense.

UFA Signings

F Josh Currie (one year, $775K)*
F Matthew Highmore (one year, $775K)*
G Joonas Korpisalo (five years, $20M)
F Zack MacEwen (three years, $2.325M)
C Garrett Pilon (one year, $775K)*
RW Vladimir Tarasenko (one year, $5M)

The Senators went into the offseason knowing that they needed to improve in net if they wanted to have any chance to make the playoffs in the 2023-24 season. They did not receive NHL goaltending this past season, and while team defense was also an issue, their netminding left a lot to be desired. The Senators opted to give term and a good chunk of change to Korpisalo in hopes of him being the solution. Korpisalo was terrific last season with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Los Angeles Kings, however with the Kings he was able to play behind one of the best defensive teams in the league, something that can’t be said of the Senators. The Senators made a big bet with the 29-year-old and will be hoping that get last year’s version of him, and not the version he was during his first seven years in the NHL.

The Senators opted to take the savings from DeBrincat and sign sniper Tarasenko. Between he and Kubalik they should be able to make up the offense that Ottawa is losing with Debrincat now in Detroit. Tarasenko isn’t the player he was once but should be good for 25 goals and something around 50 points. Tarasenko is just a year removed from a 34-goal campaign and seems to have overcome some of the shoulder problems that severely damaged his play. In Ottawa he won’t be asked to drive a line and should fit in well with some of the Senators' younger stars.

RFA Re-Signings

D Erik Brannstrom (one year, $2M)
D Jacob Bernard-Docker (two years, $1.61M)
G Kevin Mandolese (one year, $775K)*

*-denotes two-way contract

Brannstrom may never live up to the hype that surrounded him when he was traded to Ottawa as part of the package to acquire Mark Stone. Brannstrom came in with a lot of expectations, and fair or not, he hasn’t lived up to them. That doesn’t mean he isn’t an effective player; it means that he was overvalued and hasn’t turned out to be what Ottawa thought they were getting in the Stone swap. But Brannstrom is still an effective player and could be part of the future on Ottawa’s back end. Brannstrom dressed in a career-high 74 games last season and posted two goals and 16 assists while playing over 16 minutes a night. The 24-year-old will always be undersized, but his skating and skill should remain a valuable asset for the near future. Brannstrom is unlikely to crack Ottawa’s top 4 anytime soon given who is ahead of him on the depth chart, but it is hard to say if he is even suited for that role. Brannstrom may be best suited for a bottom-pairing role on a very good team, something he will find in Ottawa this season.

Departures

F Julien Gauthier (Islanders, two years, $1.575M)
F Scott Sabourin (San Jose, two years, $1.55M)
F Patrick Brown (Boston, two years, $1.6M)
D Nick Holden (unsigned UFA)
F Jake Lucchini (Minnesota, one year, $775K)*
G Antoine Bibeau (signed with AIK IF, Allsv)
D Jonathan Aspirot (unsigned)
F Derick Brassard (unsigned)
G Cam Talbot (Los Angeles, one year, $1M)
F Olle Alsing (Signed with Leksands IF of SHL)
F Dylan Gambrell (Toronto, one year, $775K)
F Austin Watson (Tampa Bay, PTO)
F Viktor Lodin (IK Oskarshamn, SHL)

The Senators didn’t lose much from their lineup at all this offseason. Most of the pieces that walked out the door had run their course in Ottawa or were past their best-before date and didn’t have much of a future with the Senators. The biggest loss for Ottawa was probably Talbot, but during his time with the Senators he struggled mightily and didn’t give Ottawa what they were hoping for when they traded for him last summer.

Outside of Talbot most of the departing Senators are easily replaceable and should hurt the product on the ice this season.

Salary Cap Outlook

Much like the New York Rangers, we don’t need to look too far into the past to remember when the Ottawa Senators were viewed as a team with ample cap space, good young players and a ton of draft picks and prospects. The prospects arrived and the cap space dried up quick and now Ottawa will enter next summer with less than $15M in available cap room and just 14 players signed for 2024-25. Ottawa could find themselves tight against the cap going forward, however they have almost all their stars and strong depth pieces locked in long-term. The salary cap outlook is okay, it’s not the best, but it could certainly be worse.

Key Questions

Can The Senators Make The Playoffs?

There have been a few teams in the past two decades who drafted high-end first-round picks and could never find any playoff success, the recent incarnations of the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs come to mind. The Ottawa Senators are hoping they can find success sooner than their Canadian counterparts, but they must make it to the playoffs first. Ottawa will be in tough this year as the Eastern Conference is a buzzsaw. There are possibly 11 teams in the Eastern Conference that are playoff teams, and three of them will miss out. The Senators are primed to make it this year, but can they?

Is Korpisalo The Answer In Nets?

Giving money and term to a goaltender is always risky, Pierre Dorion knows this well (Matt Murray anyone?). But at some point, you must pull the trigger and make a move to solidify your goaltending, especially with your team ready to contend. Dorion knew he had to address this, but only time will tell if Korpisalo was the answer to the question.

Will D.J. Smith Last The Year?

Coach Smith has won before in other places, but he has yet to win in the NHL with the Senators. This is a make-or-break season for the coach, he has had a lot of leash thus far, but at this point, the Senators are a playoffs-or-bust team. Should they stumble out of the gate, Smith could find himself on the hotseat very quick. But even though he is likely on the hot seat, Smith will be given some rope to manage this team through the season. The players and managers have all said publicly that he is the guy, and unless something changes behind closed doors, there is no reason to believe they will dump him in season unless the team absolutely falls apart in the early part of the season.