Assessing NHL's top remaining restricted free agents

Since the opening of free agency on July 1, there have been 300 contracts signed in the NHL. A bulk of those contracts have been unrestricted free agents signing with new teams, but also include restricted free agents garnering new deals with the current clubs, as well as some notable extensions.

The financial landscape around the league is very near to being set in stone before the start of training camp in September. Nevertheless, there are still a handful of restricted free agents left without new contracts who either did not file for arbitration or are ineligible to do so.

Per CapFriendly, in order of previous salary, the complete list is as follows:

1. F Trevor Zegras – Anaheim Ducks
2. F Alexis Lafreniere – New York Rangers
3. D Tim Berni – Columbus Blue Jackets
4. D Jamie Drysdale – Anaheim Ducks
5. F Shane Pinto – Ottawa Senators
6. D Logan Stanley – Winnipeg Jets
7. F Joe Veleno – Detroit Red Wings
8. D Evan Bouchard – Edmonton Oilers
9. F Noah Philp – Edmonton Oilers
10. F Egor Sokolov – Ottawa Senators
11. D Declan Chisholm – Winnipeg Jets
12. F Morgan Frost – Philadelphia Flyers
13. F Jan Jenik – Arizona Coyotes
14. D Calen Addison – Minnesota Wild

Two notable building blocks in Anaheim, Zegras and Drysdale, immediately jump off the list. After a solid year during the 2021-22 regular season, Drysdale was injured for much of last year due to a torn labrum, an injury that would limit him to only eight games played all year. Because of this, Drysdale might be boxed into a one-year deal for 2023-24, or he and the team could pursue a two-year, $5M contract similar to the one Oliver Kylington signed with the Calgary Flames around this time last year.

Zegras, on the other hand, should have a much different approach to his contract negotiations with Anaheim. Over the past several years, the NHL has seen a large uptick in notable contract extensions given to young centers, the most recent example being Tim Stutzle’s eight-year, $66.8M contract extension with the Ottawa Senators last September. After that contract was signed, Stutzle went from a 60-point pace in 2021-22 to a 90-point pace in 2022-23. Zegras is a very similar player to Stutzle (albeit Stutzle has shown the ability to be a better goal-scorer so far), but it will all come down to Pat Verbeek’s confidence in Zegras’ growth for next season. If he believes Zegras will become a star, a contract similar to Stutzle’s should largely be the aim of the team. If, however, Verbeek does not have the confidence in Zegras to become an above-average point scorer, Zegras may be in line for a one to two-year bridge deal.

Another name that should get a long look as a possible long-term extension candidate would be Frost on the Flyers. In his first season under new head coach, John Tortorella, Frost experienced a breakout year, scoring 46 points in 81 games. Although not having the track record typically necessary for a long-term extension, the rebuilding Philadelphia franchise has an opportunity to start securing its core for the future. Already moving on from Kevin Hayes, Frost projects as the team’s third-best forward for the upcoming season, and if the Flyers plan on contending in the next 5-7 years, a contract similar to Travis Konecny’s back in 2019 may not be the worst decision for the future of the franchise.

Lastly, two of the most complicated situations on the board come from Bouchard and Lafreniere. Suffice it to say, there is a legitimate chance that both players sit out a portion of training camp due to contract holdouts.

Both players are largely projected for bridge deals, given the cap space of their current clubs, but both of their markets have been affected greatly this summer. In Bouchard’s case, the contracts given to Bowen Byram of the Colorado Avalanche, and K’Andre Miller of the New York Rangers, largely indicate what Bouchard should be expecting on his next deal. He should be expecting a two-year deal, somewhere in the $3.9M-$4.1M AAV range, and that’s something the Oilers do not have the space for currently. Bouchard’s importance to Edmonton was solidified last postseason, after scoring 17 points in 12 games, finishing third on the team in scoring. With only $3.5M in cap space heading into the season, the Oilers are close to having enough space to fit in Bouchard, but will still need to make a move or two to fit in one of their best defensemen.

Unlike Bouchard, Lafreniere has largely disappointed in the context of his draft ranking (first overall in 2020). Patience seems to be growing thin with the young forward, even leading to rumors of a potential trade away from New York this summer. However, as many Vancouver Canucks fans should remember, franchise legend Daniel Sedin did not play like a top-three selection in his first three years in the league, either. This is not to say that Lafreniere will go on to produce as much as either Sedin twin, but a little more patience should be in order for the Rangers. With only $2.2M remaining in cap space, and given his limited production over the past three seasons, Lafreniere should be expecting a two-year, $2.1M-$2.5M AAV for his next contract.