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Single Game Prospect Breakdown: Dillon Mitchell vs Baylor
USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps no college freshman has seen their draft stock take more of a hit than former No. 5 overall recruit Dillon Mitchell.

Mitchell is a hyper athletic, 6-foot-8 forward that played for Montverde Academy and seemed to be a prized recruit for the Texas Longhorns.

In the eight Montverde events tracked by Cerebro Sports Mitchell put up five gold C-RAM scores with his best performance being at the The La Porte Invitational: a score of 11.2.

Unfortunately for Mitchell, that production has simply not carried over to his freshman season, where he has an overall C-RAM score of just 7.0 and a very concerning point scoring prowess (PSP) of 48.

Mitchell, shooting 62% from the field on just 3.8 attempts per game, has not attempted double-digit shots in a game this season and does not have a game with more than three attempts since Jan. 11.

He has also not taken a single 3-point attempt this season and is just 46% from the free throw line on 1.2 attempts per game. And you can see where there are major questions about his offensive value in the NBA.

As our own Sr. NBA Draft Analyst at Draft Digest, Matt Babcock, explains it, “There are a lot of great qualities that Dillon brings to the table. However, he's not wired to be an offensive engine. And, considering that Texas features an offense built around guards Tyrese Hunter and Marcus Carr who are both assertive scorers, Dillon's role is pretty simple. He roams around the dunker spot, looking for dump-offs and lobs and crashing the glass for offensive rebounds and tip dunks. For the most part, his role requires the game to come to him, and subsequently, I think there have been times this year when he's gotten lost in the shuffle a bit and blended.”

Where Mitchell has been more impactful in his less than 20 minutes a night for the Longhorns is on the defensive end of the court. Cerebro Sports has him with a very good score of 82 on their defensive stats impact (DSI) metric.

Unfortunately, Mitchell only played 10 minutes in this game due to a tough fall at the start of the second half and ended with one field goal attempt and two rebounds.

Offense

In the minutes we did get from Mitchell we saw exactly what Babcock was speaking of, as he showcased some nice off-ball movement with cuts. You could see the vision of his impact in transition and the dunker spot.

It was also immediately apparent how aware Baylor was of him on the offensive boards to make sure they got a body on him for a box out.

The issue, as we have discussed, is that it just seems like very little of this actually turns into production for him or Texas.

Defense

Defensively, Mitchell did have a few rough on-ball possessions to start the game where he gave up drives to Jalen Bridges.

He did show that intriguing defensive potential away from the ball where, in those limited minutes, there were examples of good communication, engagement and even some rim protection.

Where does this leave Mitchell’s 2023 NBA Draft outlook and the possibility of actually returning to school? For that we will again turn to our own Sr. NBA Draft Analyst, Matt Babcock.

“Although Dillon does have some limitations, he's an elite athlete with a motor that never stops. I also think he has more in his bag than he's shown. I saw him do more with the ball at some AAU events in high school. He has a lot of room for growth, outside shooting and physical strength, specifically. All-in-all, Dillon possesses a significant amount of upside. At the very least, I believe there is enough interest in Dillon from NBA teams to test the draft waters. However, I think it's an interesting idea for Dillon to be in the 2024 NBA Draft rather than this upcoming one. It seems as if next year's draft will be down some and it would give him more time to develop and establish himself.”

This article first appeared on FanNation NBA Draft and was syndicated with permission.

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