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With Joel Embiid out, who should win Rookie of the Year?
Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts from the bench in the first quarter against the Golden State Warriors on February 27, 2017.  Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

With Joel Embiid out, who should win Rookie of the Year?

Joel Embiid is the NBA’s Rookie of the Year even if he is not the NBA’s Rookie of the Year. He’s been much more than just the best first-year player in the NBA, he’s been instrumental in changing the on-court culture of the 76ers while also being one of the most entertaining men off the floor. He’s given Philly fans a sense of optimism that they haven’t had since Allen Iverson was leading the team to an NBA Finals appearance. Embiid became the 76ers while not playing every night and with a minutes restriction on the nights he suited up.

The qualitative measures of why Embiid mattered this year feel much more important than the numbers, but Embiid was heads and heels above his peers in the box scores, too. Look at where he ranks among all rookies who play at least 15 minutes per game:

  • Points Per Game: 1st
  • Rebounds Per Game: 1st
  • Blocks Per Game: 1st
  • PER: 1st
  • Block Percentage: 1st
  • Usage Rate: 1st
  • Defensive Rating: 1st
  • BPM: 1st
  • VORP: 1st
  • TS%: 2nd
  • Rebound Percentage: 2nd
  • FG%: 3rd
  • Steals Per Game: T3rd
  • Win Shares/48: 3rd
  • 3PT%: 4th
  • eFG%: 4th
  • Offensive Rating: 6th
  • Assists Per Game: 7th
  • Assist Percentage: 8th
  • Steal Percentage: 8th
  • FT%: 10th

Simply stated, no other rookie this season ranks top 10 in this many categories. And when you look at how evenly spread out his game is, it’s hard to imagine any other rookie taking the award from him. Embiid is the best scoring and the best defensive rookie. He’s a 7-foot center who is shooting the 3-ball better than all but three of his classmates while protecting the rim better than everyone.

Even with all of this, however, Embiid is going to lose the rookie of the year award because of one statistical category that has nothing to do with talent, but everything to do with health: minutes.

Embiid was already figured to play fewer minutes than any other rookie this season, but with the news that he’ll likely sit for the rest of the season, he wouldn’t even come close to Kyrie Irving, the current ROY winner with the fewest minutes played during his rookie year. In fact, Embiid has barely played half as many minutes as Irving did in 2012, and that season was shortened due to the lockout.

So if Embiid cannot win the Rookie of the Year as the NBA’s best rookie, who should win it? The answer will likely unfold over the last month and a half of the season, and who you think the award should go to largely depends on what it is you believe a ROY candidate should be: (A) a potential scoring machine, (B) a double-double monster or (C) a jack-of-all-trades do it all. Let’s make a case for each.

Buddy Hield: Potential scoring machine


Buddy Hield of the Sacramento Kings warms up before a game on February 23, 2017 at Golden 1 Center. Hield was recently traded to Sacramento which has already had an immediate impact on his stats. Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images

While Buddy Hield’s numbers over his first three games in Sacramento aren’t tremendously impressive, there are signs that he may start filling things up with his new role. Kings owner Vivek Ranadive has coveted Hield for quite some time, going as far as telling Hield that the Kings, “are still going to get you” during both games the Pelicans played in Sacramento. Ranadive believes that Hield can become a newer version of Steph Curry, and because of this, he’s willing to give Hield the green light every time he steps on the floor. In the three games, Hield’s usage rate has jumped more than two percent, and his true shooting percentage has moved from 50.2 percent to 61.9 percent – and without Cousins there, he’s likely going to start getting No. 1 option shot attempts if he replaces Ben McLemore in the starting lineup. Hield did not have a great start to the season, but what rookie did outside of Embiid. Right now it’s a race to see who finishes the season on the best note, and if Hield can start lighting up teams like he did last March in Oklahoma, he just may have a case.

Dario Saric: Double-double monster


Dario Saric is already picking up where Embiid left off for the Philadelphia 76ers.  Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Dario Saric was already having a fairly decent rookie year before Joel Embiid went down, but since Embiid’s injury, Philly fans may have room for more optimism. In February, Saric is averaging 17 and 8 on 44 percent shooting. He hasn’t been the defensive stalwart that Embiid is, but he’s been on a double-double tear as of late. Saric only has eight double-doubles on the season, but four of them have come in the 76ers last five games. He’s not just squeaking them by, either. He’s had at least 11 rebounds and at least 18 points in each of his four-consecutive double-doubles, two of which were against playoff-bound teams in Boston and Washington. If not culturally, Saric has started to pick up the statistical pieces Embiid left, and because of it, the Rookie of the Year award could remain in Philadelphia if Saric continues his assault on the glass.

Malcolm Brogdon: Jack-of-all-trades


Milwaukee Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon drives to the basket against during the first half against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Feb. 27, 2017. Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Nothing about Malcolm Brogdon screams flashy or rookie of the year, but everything he does is a positive for the Milwaukee Bucks. He’s a prototypical 'three-and-D' guy, shooting 41 percent from three (47 percent in the corners), and is a perfect wing compliment to Jabari Parker. While Milwaukee is still a season or two away from becoming a playoff team, Brogdon is one of the biggest reasons many believe the Bucks will make the jump next season. He’s averaging 9.7 points, 2.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists. No individual number jumps out at you, but it’s the fact that he’s contributing to every facet of the game. Brogdon is the only member of the team who is listed in each of the Bucks top eight five-man lineups (min 20 minutes) – not even Giannis Antetokounmpo can make this claim. Despite not having huge numbers, he’s made the game easier on all of his teammates, and as he improves as a plus-defender, the Bucks are truly going to have a gem in Brogdon for years to come. But is that enough for him to win Rookie of the Year?

It’s hard to tell at the moment where things will land at season’s end, but with Embiid out, voters will have a trio of guys, all of whom are offering something very different for their respective teams. Hield is probably the biggest wild card, Saric seems like the safest bet at the moment while Brogdon has been the most consistent of the three all season long. None of them are Embiid, but the award has to go to someone, even if it doesn’t go to the best rookie of the 2016-17 season.

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