NBA betting: Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 prediction, odds, pick for 5/1

Heat vs. Celtics Odds

Wednesday, May 1, 7:30 p.m., TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Miami Heat

It's been a tough series for the Heat. Despite an offensive explosion in Game 2, the Heat have consistently struggled to score.

They play tough defense, but this is a league where good offense ultimately beats good defense. That appears to be playing out in real time.

In this game, I expect the Heat to play a lot of zone defensive sets and to move off the big filling the minutes of injured Kristaps Porzingis.

This should lead to a very slow-paced game, and a make-and-miss-your-shot type of contest.

Truthfully, that's where Miami wants to be in this series; it wants to win a shooting battle while slowing the game down.

Boston Celtics

It'll be very interesting to see how the Celtics adjust without Porzingis. While he was healthy basically all season, there were scheduled rest spots for him where the team learned to play in his absence.

But those weren't playoff games against the Heat, which are much tougher tasks.

I have little interest in backing the Celtics against the spread (-14) at the same steep numbers priced when Porzingis was active.

Instead this may be a game to look at totals, team totals and props.

A prop angle I would consider is Jayson Tatum Rebounds Over. Without Porzingis, he could — at times — be asked to play up a position.

Heat vs. Celtics

Betting Pick & Prediction

The market has taken movement on the Celtics and the under. Those are inversely correlated in a big way because the numbers are priced on each extreme.

The Celtics are a very large favorite at -14 and the under is a very low total around 200.

With the sharp sides being on the Celtics or the under, it's a pick-one-not-both scenario for me. My approach is to play a Celtics team total under because you're getting a number above 50% of the game total, which has taken a lot of movement.

Correlate the increasing spread to the dipping total and play a Celtics team total under that's been relatively the same number the whole series.

Pick: Celtics Team Total Under 106.5