How twilights of LeBron, Kawhi could mirror games of Magic, Jordan

LEBRON JAMES, LAKERS, 17th season (turning 35 this season) 

Twilight should mirror: Magic Johnson, seasons 10 thru 12, 29-31 years old.
Key three-year averages: 21.4 points, 12.3 assists, 7.1 rebounds per game.

Because of his Karl Malone-like frame, most assumed LeBron would move up positions (small forward to power forward to center) as his career progressed. While he’s clearly capable of that progression as evidenced by him dominating the restricted area throughout his career, he continues to develop his guard skills (8.8 assists per game the past three seasons) to evolve with the wide-open, perimeter-oriented evolution of the game. Put differently, he’s already adopted the Magic Johnson career evolution over the Karl Malone one, so he might as well take it full tilt and become a point guard now that he has a go-to scorer in Anthony Davis whom he can rely upon. Assuming good health, it wouldn’t be surprising to see James flirt with double-digit assists per game this season.

STEPHEN CURRY, WARRIORS, 11th season (turning 32 this season) 

Twilight should mirror: Steve Nash, seasons 12 thru 16, 33-37 years old.
Key five-year averages: 33.9 minutes, 15.4 points, 10.8 assists per game, 51-43-92 shooting  splits.

Curry always will be a better scorer than Nash ever was, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t try to mimic the latter stages of Nash's career as he ages out of his physical prime. When Curry can no longer shake the NBA’s best defenders out of their shoes, he’ll need to focus more on his playmaking (only 5.2 assists per game last season) to remain an elite offensive weapon into his mid-30s. Nash, a player development consultant for the Warriors, was still playing at an All-Star level until his final season in Phoenix by keeping defenses on edge with his brilliant orchestration of pick-and-rolls and willingness to pass up good shots for great shots. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Curry do the same.

KEVIN DURANT, NETS, his next season will be his 13th (turning 31 this season)

Twilight should mirror: Dirk Nowitzki, seasons 11 thru 14, 30-33 years old.
Key four-year averages: 24.1 points, 7.5 rebounds per game 48-38-90 shooting splits.

Given what we know about the effect Achilles injuries have on a basketball player’s athleticism, Durant is going to be a different kind of player when we next see him on the court. He’ll still have his amazing bucket-getting skills, but he probably won’t have the same kind of quickness and leaping ability, making this comparison even more apt. Like Dirk, KD has the height (7 feet) and length to get a shot off anywhere on the court. Thus, even if Durant can’t get to the rim like he has his entire career (7.7 free throw attempts per game for his career), he should be able to score 25 per game until he’s 40 if he masters some of the fadeaways, pump fakes and moves Dirk had. Good news Nets fans: He’s already pretty damn good at the one-legged fadeaway.

JAMES HARDEN, ROCKETS, 11th season (30 years old) 

Twilight should mirror: A super version of Manu Ginobili, seasons 7 thru 9, 31-33 years old.
Key three-year per-36 minute averages: 20.7 points, 5.8 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 2.6 turnovers per-36.

I used per-36 averages because Ginobili played only 28.9 minutes per game during this stretch, and Harden will almost certainly be playing more minutes late into his career. When Harden loses his insanely quick first step and elite ability to change speed and direction, he can still be one of the best offensive players in the league by constantly attacking defenses the way Ginobili did his entire career for the Spurs. Ginobili’s ability to play an ultra-aggressive playing style while not turning the ball over was especially impressive. As Harden’s athleticism wanes, his insane usage rate will likely drop and he’ll need to give the ball to the other team less (5.0 turnovers per game the past three seasons). With Russell Westbrook, another record-setting player in terms of usage rate, set to join Harden this season, perhaps we’ll start to see him take care of the ball a little better -– if he doesn’t, the Rockets might be in trouble.

KAWHI LEONARD, CLIPPERS, 9th season (28 years old)

Twilight should mirror: Michael Jordan, seasons 11 thru 13, 32-34 years old.
Key three-year averages: 29.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.9 steals, 48-37-82 shooting splits.

Remember when, near the beginning of the playoffs, hot take artist Max Kellerman took a bunch of heat from other talking heads for saying Leonard is better than Kobe Bryant in the clutch? For once, Kellerman proved prophetic, as Kawhi had a Michael Jordan-like run through the rest of the playoffs, destroying teams on offense with an array of high-level isolation moves (check out the similarities between these two) and fadeaway jumpers while clamping down on the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo on defense. During Jordan’s second three-peat, his game became more predicated on his elite post-scoring, a skill that he got much better at as his career wore on, and we saw that a bit with Kawhi last postseason. While Kawhi probably won’t score 30 points per game in the twilight of his career, there’s no reason to think he won’t be as efficient as Jordan.

RUSSELL WESTBROOK, ROCKETS, 12th season (turning 31 this season)

Twilight should mirror: Jason Kidd, seasons 11 thru 14, 31-34 years old.
Key 4-year averages: 12.8 points, 9.0 assists, 7.6 rebounds per game, 40-36-78 shooting splits.

Focus more on Kidd’s three-point shooting instead of his points-per-game averages. Despite being a certified bricklayer early in his career, Kidd became an above-average spot-up three-point shooter during the back end of his prime and then a good three-point shooter near the end of his career. Westbrook has shot under 30 percent from three in four of the past five seasons. It is essential that Westbrook improve as a spot-up shooter in the near future or else his effectiveness will fall off with his athleticism. If he’s able to become adequate from long distance, Westbrook will continue to stuff stat sheets the way Kidd did late into his 30s.

PAUL GEORGE, CLIPPERS, 10th season (turning 30 this season)

Twilight should mirror: Scottie Pippen, seasons 9 thru 11, 30-32 years old.
Key 3-year averages: 19.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.8 steals per game.

If this article proves prophetic, the Clippers will have one heck of a combo to look forward to even as Kawhi Leonard and George age. Like Pippen, George is a stellar defender whose offensive game has developed to the point where he can carry a good team for long stretches of the season. However, also like Pippen, George’s game works perfectly in a secondary offensive role. If George wants to age like Pippen, he’ll need to improve his playmaking (3.6 assists per game the past three seasons) and continue to defend at the same All-NBA Defense level.

KLAY THOMPSON, WARRIORS, 9th season (turning 30 this season)

Twilight should mirror: Reggie Miller seasons 11 thru 14, 32-35 years
old
Key 4-year averages: 18.8 points per game, 45-40-91 shooting splits.

Ray Allen would be another apt historical comparison here, but Reggie Miller had the type of stats I expect Thompson to have late into his career. Like Miller, Thompson is excellent moving without the basketball and a dead-eye shooter who needs no time to get shots off. Thompson is also a better defensive player than Miller ever was, but Miller’s ability to shoot and score at an efficient clip late into his career is what you want to focus on here. Thompson will be coming off a torn ACL next season, and has toughed his way through a number of injuries so far in his career. It remains to be seen if he is able to run around hundreds of screens every day in his mid-30s like Miller did.

BLAKE GRIFFIN, PISTONS, 10th season (turning 31 this season) 

Twilight should mirror: Chris Webber, seasons 10 through 12, 29-31 years old.
Key 3-year averages: 20.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists per game.

Although Chris Webber’s career ended up falling off a cliff due to knee problems shortly after this stretch, he did have a nice run when his athleticism initially started to wane. He did it by operating like a wizard out of the high post. Griffin is more of an open-court player than Webber was, but he’s an equally talented passer — he averaged 5.5 assists per game the past two seasons. He’s already improved his ball-handling and playmaking tremendously during his career; the next step in his evolution should be to also move to the high post like Webber did when he couldn’t dominate opponents with his open-court speed and vision like he had earlier in his career.

KYRIE IRVING, NETS, 9th season (turning 28 during season) 

Twilight should NOT mirror: Stephon Marbury.

Irving’s career is starting to remind me a lot of Marbury’s career. Despite being in a perfect basketball situation playing with an all-time great (Kevin Garnett) early in his career, Marbury wanted his own team and demanded a trade. Sound familiar? Marbury proceeded to wear out his welcome at essentially every other stop during his NBA career before selling a $20 discount basketball shoe (which was actually really cool of him to do), live-streaming himself eating Vaseline and eventually leaving to play in China. Let’s hope Kyrie’s career doesn’t follow the same path.