MLB Division Series: Who will advance to Championship Series?

Not only was Seattle 7-12 against Houston in the regular season, the Astros are just simply better than Mariners. On top of that, the Astros have been here plenty of times. As for Seattle, they haven't been in the ALDS since 2001. That might not seem like a big deal, but it is. Having a clubhouse with guys with that experience and pedigree pays dividends in a series like this.

Plus, Houston's lineup is immensely better than Seattle's, even without Michael Brantley and Carlos Correa from years past. Despite a plethora of injuries throughout the regular season, Houston still won 106 games and finished with the second-most home runs in the AL. Yordan Alvarez was arguably the best position player in the AL outside of Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, and Kyle Tucker just finished with his second straight 30-homer season. 

The Mariners might have the better bullpen, but Houston's starting staff is better. Not only does Houston have AL Cy Young front-runner Justin Verlander, they also have Framber Valdez. Valdez set an MLB record with 25 straight quality starts this season and finished the season 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA. That's a legit No. 1 starter for most teams, but with Verlander on Houston, Valdez is the No. 2. And no team in the AL might have a better 1-2 starting combo than them.

This series could get interesting if it's tied in the later innings, but still, take Houston. They have the better overall team and experience.

The Bet: Houston over Seattle

Other bets to place in this series: Verlander to record the win in Game 1 (+145); Astros to sweep Mariners (+330).

Cleveland Guardians (+165) vs. New York Yankees (-210)

The Yankees might be the favorite in this series, but no, I repeat, do not underestimate the Guardians. They might have the third-lowest payroll in MLB, but they're dangerous. We talked about it in our Wild Card Series preview — the Guardians rarely beat themselves, and they do the small things better than just about everybody. 

The Guardians had the fewest offensive strikeouts in baseball, finished in the top five in stolen bases and overall defensive ratings, have a great bullpen, and maybe the best reliever in baseball in Emmanuel Clase. The Guardians bullpen has yet to allow a run in the postseason, and Clase retired all seven batters he faced in the first two games of the playoffs. Not exactly a good time to be facing Clase and the rest of the Guardians bullpen if you're the Yankees. 

Despite that, I'm still taking the Yankees. New York has the better lineup, and with a home run-heavy team in a home run-heavy park like Yankee Stadium, that might just be a problem for the Guardians. Plus, the Guardians were just 1-5 head-to-head against the Yankees. Sure, that's a small sample size, but those big bats in the Yankees lineup are going to be a problem for Cleveland. Everyone knows Cleveland won't let Judge beat them, but don't snooze on guys like Rizzo, Stanton and Torres. They can hit, and have plenty of postseason experience. 

It's far from ideal that the Yankees will be without reliever Aroldis Chapman for at least the ALDS after New York decided to remove him from the postseason roster after missing a workout, but they just might be better without him. Reports state that the Yankees considered cutting Chapman weeks ago, and that there's been friction between Chapman and the team for some time now. 

New York made tons of additions right before the trade deadline, and those additions should play vital roles in this series. Especially reliever Lou Trivino. Trivino won't need to just close out games, but the Yankees will likely rely on him to get more than three outs on multiple occasions. If he can, the Yankees should very well win this series. 

The Bet: Yankees over Guardians

Other bets for this series: Cleveland to beat New York in Game One (+190) and Yankees to beat Guardians in five games (+320).

Philadelphia Phillies (+155) vs. Atlanta Braves (-180)

I'll be the first to say it. I was wrong about the Phillies. I didn't think they had a chance against the Cardinals, and they didn't just beat them, they swept them. Philly rallied from a 2-0 deficit in the ninth in Game 1, and never looked back after that, shutting out the Cards, 2-0, in Game 2. However, despite that, I'm riding the Braves. 

Not only are the Braves the reigning World Series Champs, they're the hottest team in baseball. Atlanta finished 18-8 in September, best in the National League, and won the NL East in the final week of the season despite trailing the Mets by 10.5 games at one point in the season. This team got hot at the right time last year, and they're doing it again this season. 

They might not have Freddie Freeman on their side, but Austin Riley and Matt Olson have done more than just fill the void. Same goes for Ronald Acuna Jr, who missed the first month of the season after tearing his ACL last season. Acuna is a budding superstar, and don't be surprised if he has a monster series.

The Braves finished with the fifth-best ERA in the NL, and the second-best ERA amongst relievers. And don't forget the Braves led the NL in home runs, and scored the third most runs in baseball. This team is superiorly better than the Phillies, and should have little problem with them. 

NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Spencer Strider hasn't pitched in three weeks due to an oblique injury, but it sounds like he's going to be available for the postseason. Strider might not have his usual stamina or stuff, but even at 75-80%, he's still dangerous. Plus, Atlanta was 11-8 against them in the regular season.

The Phillies flipped the switch after they fired Joe Girardi during the season, but that spark ends in the NLDS against the Braves. They've got a true No. 1 starter in Zack Wheeler, and some legit power hitters in Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, but Atlanta is just too much.

The Bet: Atlanta over Philadelphia

Other Bets: Braves over Phillies in four games (+330).

San Diego Padres (+160) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)

Similar to the Phillies, the Padres pulled off the upset over the Mets in the Wild Card Series, but their luck should end in this California series. I hate to have picked all favorites, but it is what it is. Clayton Kershaw might not be the pitcher he once was, and I know he seems to struggle come October, but it wasn't just a fluke that the Dodgers finished with the best record in baseball and ran away with the NL West. This is the best team in baseball. 

The Dodgers led baseball in runs scored, on-base percentage, and OPS, and have the best lineup in the game. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, etc. It goes on, and on. This team can hit, and hit for power. And they can pitch too. The Dodgers finished with the best ERA in baseball, and even without Walker Buehler and a 100% healthy Tony Gonsolin, they should be OK. Julio Urias had another monster season, Kershaw is still really good, and Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney have been pleasant surprises in the rotation.

The bullpen has been an issue, especially the closer spot. However, it's been better since removing Craig Kimbrel from the closer role. And even with closer by committee approach for now, the Dodgers should be able to hold off the Padres. The bye due to finishing with the best record could come back to bite them in Game 1, especially with how good the Padres looked against the Mets, but they should still be OK. The Dodgers took it to the Padres in the regular season, won 14 of 19, and while I expect this series to be much closer, I still like the Dodgers. 

The Bet: Dodgers over Padres

Other bets: Dodgers over Padres in five (odds unavailable); Padres +1.5 runline in game one (odds unavailable).