NCAA men’s lacrosse odds and picks: Best bets for college lacrosse conference tournament finals

Sacred Heart vs. Manhattan

Odds via FanDuel

Sacred Heart and Manhattan meet in the MAAC tournament final with an NCAA tournament bid on the line. Sacred Heart is as high as a 3.5-point favorite, but the total is where the value is.

At 22.5, I think this is a great spot to bet this game to go over. 

For starters, when these teams last met they scored 26 goals between them and both's pace and efficiency on offensive appeared to be sustainable. Sacred Heart and Manhattan rank 15th and 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency during competitive situations. The Pioneers also play at the 9th fastest pace and should enjoy a decent faceoff advantage, allowing them to go on big scoring runs.

Despite the 14-12 score when these teams last met, both goalies played well, combining for 30 saves. Both teams recorded an on-goal shooting rate north of 66% last game, suggesting this score could have been even higher.

Both teams give up an average of more than 1.04 shots per possession and have an opponent shots on goal percentage above 63%. Expect a lot of shots leading to a lot of goals on Saturday morning.

Bet this game to go over 22.5 at -128 on FanDuel.

Pick: Over 22.5 (-128)

No. 14 St. Joe’s vs. No. 18 Richmond

Odds via FanDuel

The top two teams in the Atlantic 10 conference face off in their respective conference championship, with St. Joe's the favorite in their rematch with Richmond. Rather than bet a side, I'm targeting the total of 22.5.

The first game was a 10-9 slugfest and consistent with both team's style of play. Neither of these top defenses relented during most settled situations, with five goals coming during unsettled situations. Richmond is still the top-ranked team in adjusted defensive efficiency at 22.5% and St. Joe's has been playing like a top-ranked defense, posting an adjusted defensive efficiency of 22.2% during their six Atlantic 10 games.

Both goaltenders have a save percentage above 52%, but neither reached double-digit saves last game due to how few shots on goal they faced. Expect them to keep this total low even if we see a higher amount of shots on goal.

Bet this total to stay under 22.5 at -128 on FanDuel.

Pick: Under 22.5 (-128)

No. 9 Penn State vs. No. 17 Michigan

Odds via FanDuel

The Big Ten final features neither of the top-seeded teams, with Penn State knocking off Maryland and Michigan upsetting Big Ten regular season champion Johns Hopkins. Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite after beating Michigan earlier in the season, 14-8.

Yet, I expect a stronger showing from the Wolverines this time.

Michigan generated a lot of quality chances against Penn State in their last game, but Jack Fracyon made 19 saves and the Wolverines struggled to contain star attackman TJ Malone. Michigan has the ability to keep this game close the second time around thanks to their 13th-ranked offense that is surging as of late and their advantage at the faceoff.

In the last meeting, Michigan won 17 of 25 faceoffs and out possessed the Nittany Lions 40 to 34.

Michigan has a chance to pull off another upset and at the very least should cover this spread. Bet Michigan +3.5 at -104 on FanDuel.

Pick: Michigan +3.5 (-104)

No. 12 Princeton vs. No. 16 Penn

Odds via FanDuel

Princeton and Penn meet in the Ivy League final with both likely needing to win to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament. When these teams last faced, Princeton won 15-10.

Princeton is a 1.5-point favorite this time around and there's a good chance we'll see a similar result on Sunday.

The Tigers now rank second in adjusted defensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency. While the Quakers are also an elite defensive team, ranking 13th, they are outmatched on offense and at the faceoff. 

Last game, Princeton's offense was extremely efficient even with Penn goalie Emmet Carroll making 17 saves. On the other end, Princeton made Penn work for their scoring opportunities and allowed Princeton goalie Michael Gianforcaro to see a lot of low-percentage shots that he easily saved.

Expect Princeton to be able to build and maintain a multi-goal lead again on Sunday. Bet Princeton -1.5 at -118 on FanDuel.

Pick: Princeton -1.5 (-118)