NCAAF Week 10: LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide betting picks, preview

LSU vs. Alabama is always a big game. This season, both teams are on the outside in terms of the College Football Playoffs, however, if Alabama wins they have the inside track to make the SEC Championship Game with a chance to make it back into the CFP picture. An LSU victory would be two in a row against Alabama for the Tigers. There are not many teams that have done that to Nick Saban. 

LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends and Odds   

Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023 — 7:45 p.m. ET
Odds: Alabama -3, Over/under 61.5, LSU +140 | Alabama -166

The number is saying the location of the game is the thing. That is always an interesting reason to back one side over another, especially when it is a spot that the opponent is familiar with. If you take LSU though, you have to fight your brain because fading Alabama at home is just not going to sit right. This is a night game, so there is time for a line move, but given it is right on a key number, it probably holds tight. 

Pick for LSU vs. Alabama

LSU +3

I know, I am going for it. It might be a simplistic view, but the quarterback advantage that LSU has is the thing for me this week. Alabama is likely more talented overall but LSU QB Jayden Daniels has been awesome this season, he is playing at such a high level that he has been elevated to being a Heisman favorite. He is the exact kind of quarterback to pull an upset on the road too with his combination of accuracy and explosive running.

Alabama will be able to pressure him, but that just gives the Tigers'  trigger man the chance to make the kind of plays that could net him a Heisman. It is not like LSU is fielding a bunch of scrubs at other spots on the field; there are NFL-bound players all over the offense and even the defense despite their poor numbers. The Tigers have the top offense in the country and will keep the pressure on the home side all game long. They probably win it outright. 

Right now, more of the money and the tickets are on Alabama, but the line has held steady. That tells us we can probably wait and see how the day goes. Maybe we get that golden extra half-point on the Tigers if we time it right.