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NCAAF Top 25 futures: Oklahoma Sooners looking to exit Big 12 with a bang

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 7/9/23

This is the last season for the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12, a league they have dominated for most of this century. Last year they were under new leadership and it felt like the program regressed (more than felt like it, they did). That puts extra pressure on the players and coaches this season because things are not going to get easier in the SEC.

Last year Oklahoma finished 6-7 and to put that in context, the last time the Sooners finished with a losing record was 1998. That forced out head coach John Blake and a guy named Bob Stoops took over the program. All he did was win a title in his second year leading the program. The Sooners expect to win and win big and this season it looks like things should be better than last year.

No. 21 Oklahoma Sooners 2023 Win Total

Over 9.5 -110 / Under 9.5 -110

Based on the pricing, the market is saying this number is about right, even if the Sooners might not be the top dog in the Big 12 in their last season. Last year Oklahoma had some ugly, ugly, losses (including 49-0 vs. rival Texas), but their last four losses of the season, including the bowl game, were by exactly three points. With a first-time head coach last year, it feels like they should be better in those close games, where a play or two can make all the difference, this season. Just evening out their record in one-score games could make the Sooners look much better on paper this year. (P.S. In each of those three-point losses they missed at least one field goal).

The 2023 schedule does not look that daunting either. The Sooners get all three of their non-league games out of the way early, and the trio of Arkansas State, SMU, and Tulsa (even on the road) should not give them too much trouble. In the Big 12, they take on three newcomers, beginning league play at Cincinnati, hosting UCF, and visiting BYU late in the season. All three look like winnable games, in fact, all of their road games look like Ws right now. Once again the toughest game of the schedule is the annual Red River Rivalry against the Texas Longhorns. This looks like a schedule that can help an improved team return to prominence.

Oklahoma returns the quarterback of their offense — QB Dillon Gabriel — and their defense — LB Danny Stutsman. That is a nice continuity base, but if the Sooners are going to get back to kicking butt, they need more than that. The program feels really good about returning to expected levels of success this season but until the coach wins, he is going to have to own, the criticism of being "just a great coordinator." He has proven to be a good recruiter too, but different from the old regime. There should be improvement in Year 2 but not of the "Stoopsian variety."

The schedule is the thing for the Sooners this season. Right now I would have them favored in all but two games and I do think they can have a little better luck. I would not bet big on them right now, especially at -110, but the over side looks good. We will know pretty early too, they should be 5-0 before facing Texas.

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